The rate of reaching the postseason after an 0–2 start is roughly 11%. If you’re an NFL team, that basically means it’s effectively the bottom of the ninth inning and you’re up to bat trailing by one run. Over the past 10 years, about one team per season has reached the playoffs after losing its first two games. It’s not quite the hole that 0–3 represents, but it’s not the warm and cozy confines of 1–2. Ahh, what a fireplace and broken-in sofa that life is compared to this unpleasant reality.
Panic in these situations is relative. Some teams are just as happy going 0–2. Some teams have tried to pay their coaches extra to go 0–2. And, though we shared a historical percentage above, teams theoretically have an easier time recovering now that the schedule has expanded to 17 games and the playoff field has grown to 14. This year, we’re going to try and assign an actual score that will gauge exactly how worried a team will be based on several biomarkers. The resulting score I’ll list here is the compiled PANIC score.
The score is the composite of different categories that—I feel—contribute to the groundswell of panic.
- Closeness of the first two games
- Security of the head coach
- Poor play committed by rookies and/or young tentpole stars
- Fan satiation over a longer period of time and relative to this year’s specific expectations
- Volume of controversial decisions, bad press conferences, and appearances that convey apathy, evident frustration or surrender
We will list the league’s 10 winless teams in order of the least understandable panic to the most understandable panic.
Kansas City Chiefs
Panic score: 3.5
I mean, come on. On one hand, the startling nature of the Chiefs’ 0–2 start highlights just how incredible this run has been under Andy Reid. This was the inevitable settling of dust—players’ age. Outlier injuries occur all at once. Taking character risks culminates in situations where valuable players must be traded or endure suspensions. And so, we’re left with a winless team, but in actuality, Kansas City lost two close games to teams (the Chargers and Eagles) that will likely be in the playoffs or deep in the Super Bowl conversation. Reid has tenure; his explanations for various situations are largely taken at face value, à la Bill Belichick at the height of his powers. Chiefs fans, who were notably outnumbered by their Eagles counterparts in New Orleans in February, are fat and happy. And, Josh Simmons allowed no pressures or sacks in Week 2, along with the best hustle play of the year so far.
New Orleans Saints
Panic score: 4
The Saints have a first-round pick at left tackle who has not surrendered any hits or sacks, and has yet to commit a penalty. Both of New Orleans’s games came down to the wire despite starting Spencer Rattler at quarterback (he’s not bad, by the way; he’s just not what you would classically consider a true long-term option at the position). The team is middle of the road in terms of drive sustenance and picks up a lot of first downs. The defense, which is not new coach Kellen Moore’s area of expertise, is good enough to have allowed a top 10 net yards per attempt average from opponents.
This team had zero expectations coming into the season, and the bar is to emerge as a good place for a quarterback to come in 2026—either via the draft, free agency or both. So far, so good.
Cleveland Browns
Panic score: 6
The Browns were blown out by the Ravens on Sunday after nearly clipping the Bengals in Week 1. Working in the organization’s favor is a two-time Coach of the Year in Kevin Stefanski, and the fan base has somehow, miraculously, acclimated and accepted that its general manager dealt the entirety of its near future for Deshaun Watson.
Also helping the Browns is that linebacker Carson Schwesinger and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. look solid. At the same time, Quinshon Judkins also started his season in a promising way—albeit before we find out about any suspension stemming from a misdemeanor domestic violence and battery charge. Bundle that with Jacksonville’s early struggles in finding a sensible way to bake Travis Hunter into the game plan, and you have—again, somehow—the recipe for blind faith in the decision-makers who traded out of that pick.
Without a true answer at quarterback, it’s challenging to put Stefanski under the microscope for minute offensive decisions that, if we’re being honest, probably won’t make much of a difference anyway. The play of Dillon Gabriel, if and when it comes time to put him in, will change that.
New York Jets
Panic score: 6.5
Aaron Glenn and the Jets followed a spirited, arrow-up loss to the Steelers in Week 1 with a blowout loss to the Bills that outlined the gap between the two teams. By dipping his toes into the Bill Parcells waters, Aaron Glenn set himself apart from the previous job holder as a strategic advantage, but he has now set himself up for nearly weekly battles with the media. For example, You cut this guy for making a mistake but another is allowed to stay. Why? Or, Look at how tough and physical we are before the team gets absolutely mauled by James Cook in a loss that didn’t even require a Josh Allen touchdown. To me, that is the underpinning of future verbal tête-à-têtes from someone who has seen the gamut of them in that building. These back-and-forths, in which a coach rarely comes off well, are a critical ingredient in fanning the panic meter.
Working in Glenn’s favor is the fact that Armand Membou has been fantastic and Sauce Gardner is again playing like one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. Restoring their reputations is a season-long project upon which Glenn will undoubtedly be graded.
Chicago Bears
Panic score: 7
I like Ben Johnson, and I think he’s going to be a good head coach. I also think that Sunday’s loss to the Lions was a statement made by Detroit players who probably felt like Johnson got a lot of credit for a historically good collection of players. And when you take a job within your former team’s division, that kind of festering resentment lingers and adds to the challenge of winning games. Johnson has already ruffled Matt LaFleur—now the coach of arguably the hottest team in the NFL—and his former team. His team blew a lead to J.J. McCarthy, who proceeded to go out the following week and look unplayable against the Falcons. I’m not saying Johnson has to be best friends with the other coaches in the division, but I think he is earning some real on-the-job bruising that one hopes will heal once he gets out of the divisional slog portion of the schedule.
There is massive market pressure in Chicago, where a quarterback (selected by a GM who has just been given a long-term extension), despite any level of coaching, continues to participate in highlight-worthy gaffes that wrongly focus on his outlier talent. And Johnson has to balance that, while also artfully answering questions about a minor kicking error that likely makes him want to fire a microphone through the wall. That, or keep his cool when yet another of Chicago’s league-leading false starts is committed.
I think the “panic” element comes from Bears fans expecting more sooner. And I think Johnson did, too. This team was behaving as if it were on the brink of playoff contention this offseason, and it looks anything but now.
Carolina Panthers
Panic score: 7.5
The Panthers remind me a lot of the Giants. This is a team with good coaches, good offensive players, development at the quarterback position and a surrounding roster that was so incredibly bad that the decisions of personnel men a decade before are going to haunt them.
And so, what do we do? Bryce Young is still a reclamation project. Tetairoa McMillan is an exceptional offensive player performing well early in the season, though his arrival on the roster came at the expense of much-needed help for this defense. Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen both increased snap counts in Week 2. In cases such as this, I wish I could punt entirely on evaluating the situation because it’s just too early to tell.
The challenge for Dave Canales is to hang on to his badge as a rescuer of quarterbacks, which I believe in my heart he is. Young is going to have to go on a run that tamps down doubt, and the Panthers are going to have to make a crucial divisional game against the Falcons more interesting than the sportsbooks expect it to be. Then we can talk about adjusting Carolina’s score to something more commensurate with a team that needs time.
Houston Texans
Panic score: 8
The issue for the Texans is specifically related to the quarterback position and associated panic related to whether C.J. Stroud is going to end up being a second contract guy. In Stroud’s last five regular season games, Houston is 1–4, with the quarterback completing just above 60% of his passes and an average quarterback rating below 80. The Texans opted for a youth rebuild on the fly, trading away vested veterans such as Laremy Tunsil and separating from others like Stefon Diggs in the hopes that a more organic locker room vibe suitable to the team’s quarterback and cadre of young stars would grow.
I am all for the plan. I am also willing to acknowledge that the plan is very difficult to execute if a team expected to win the division falls way behind pace early in the season.
A 2–0 start in Indianapolis can also elevate levels of panic in Houston, making the AFC South seem a little less forgiving than it was in the two seasons when the Texans rose to prominence again under DeMeco Ryans.
New York Giants
Panic score: 8.5
I thought Sunday’s game against the Cowboys was an obvious example of Brian Daboll’s offensive acumen, though some head-scratching defensive plays down the stretch point to the lack of something. Certainly talent beyond the front four but also that ravenous, tank-on-empty tenacity that can close the door on a Cowboys offense and reward a historical performance from the other side of the ball. Daboll is working with the league’s worst offensive line and had to bench his left tackle after the opening drive Sunday. Yet, he still managed to prop up a game plan that produced a 450-yard, three-touchdown performance from a 36-year-old journeyman quarterback. All this while sprinkling in first-round quarterback Jaxson Dart to give him a sense of big-game vibes.
I cannot let my own personal feelings around the Giants, though, cloud what the hardened fan sees on a regular basis. While it’s hard for a coach to win without an offensive line, and while the immediate ascent of someone such as Malik Nabers gets downplayed at the expense of other more glaring issues, this team had to conduct a press conference to justify keeping the staff together and has started the season 0–2.
Tennessee Titans
Panic score: 8.5
In fairness to myself, drafting a quarterback with the No. 1 pick immediately creates an outsized grading scale full of irresponsible projections and a microwaved timeline of success. In the case of Tennessee, in particular, this is a franchise building a new stadium it is hoping to fill with devoted season ticket holders in the near future. I am guessing Brian Callahan is very much aware of this.
However, Callahan has already publicly whiffed on knowing a rule that could have impacted a critical challenge. Tennessee is also second-to-last in the NFL in points in the second half, which is often a statistic associated with play callers and their ability to make adjustments. So while “panic” may be the wrong word here, there is indeed “frustration.” And when there is frustration as it pertains to the development of the franchise’s most important player—whose highlights are very individual at this point and not necessarily tied into the scheme—you can certainly say that there is a right to be concerned about the future.
Working for and against Callahan is that this initial draft class looks good. The Titans have contributors dotted throughout the class, with receivers Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike, linebacker Oluwafemi Oledejo and Cam Ward all making appearances in the box score and showing up in critical moments. Perhaps only some associated with the Titans should be concerned this morning.
Miami Dolphins
Panic score: 9.5
I love Mike McDaniel and think that his revolution of kindness will never be fully appreciated. But if you are a command-the-boardroom CEO-type owner, a press conference after a game cannot look like this.
Already in Miami, we’ve seen sideline discontent, players-only meetings, week after week of an out-of-answers quarterback trying to salvage the moment, and we’re less than a month into the season. While panic in this case is ultimately the revelation that the team’s general manager has been drafting poorly for a decade now, the Dolphins are also battling another difficult optic: The play (or lack thereof) of 2025 draft picks compared to those who could have been drafted at No. 13. I don’t think McDaniel has to be reminded that the Colts got Tyler Warren only after the Dolphins had an opportunity but passed him up … and then brought in Darren Waller to play tight end instead. Waller still has not played a down of NFL football this season.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Panic Meter: Ranking Every 0–2 Team Based on Desperation.