Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. Let’s hope tonight’s men’s national championship game is a little closer than the women’s was.
In today’s SI:AM:
⛹️♂️ Men’s title game preview
⛳ Tiger’s chip, 20 years later
How many more will he score?
There’s a beautiful symmetry to Alex Ovechkin breaking Wayne Gretzky’s career goals record. On Sunday afternoon against the New York Islanders, Ovechkin scored his 895th career goal in his 1,487th career game, passing the mark of 894 goals Gretzky had compiled—also in 1,487 games. But that’s where the statistical comparisons end.
Over the past several years, it became increasingly clear that Ovechkin would break Gretzky’s record. The only question was when he would do it. At the start of this season, there was some question as to whether the record-breaking goal would come before the end of the year. Ovechkin entered the season needing 42 goals to pass Gretzky and had only scored 31 in the previous season. But then Ovi came out of the gate blazing hot, scoring 15 goals in his first 18 games, and it seemed like he’d cruise past Gretzky in no time. A broken leg in mid-November halted Ovechkin’s momentum, though, and cast fresh doubt on his ability to pass Gretzky this season.
Fortunately, the injury only kept Ovechkin out for about six weeks. When he returned from a 16-game absence on Dec. 28, I did the math and tried to determine how likely it was that he would be able to break the record before the end of the season. I concluded that his only chance was to keep scoring at a rate far higher than he had over his previous two seasons, an outcome made less likely because he was also playing the fewest minutes per game of his career. Breaking the record this season seemed plausible, but far from likely.
I was obviously wrong. Ovechkin has stayed hot and broke Gretzky’s record on Sunday with five games to spare. He’s scored 27 goals in 47 games since returning from his injury, a rate of one goal every 1.59 games. That’s a higher rate than he’s averaged over the course of his career (one goal every 1.66 games), and he’s doing it at age 39. Ovechkin’s 42 goals this season rank fourth in the NHL, behind Tage Thompson, William Nylander and Leon Draisaitl, all of whom are at least a decade younger than Ovechkin.
This is where Ovechkin’s career diverges from Gretzky’s. Ovechkin never achieved the gaudy single-season goal totals that Gretzky did, but he’s remained a powerful scoring threat much later in his career than Gretzky was. Gretzky holds the NHL’s single-season goals record with 92 (in 1981–82) and has four seasons in the top 10. Ovechkin’s career high is 65 goals (in 2007–08). But Gretzky was much less of a scoring threat at this stage in his career than Ovechkin has been at the same age. After his age-33 season, Gretzky never scored more than 25 goals in a season. In his final season, at age 38, he scored just nine goals in 70 games.
Ovechkin, on the other hand, has appeared ageless. If not for his mostly gray hair, it would be difficult to tell that he’s aged at all. He’s just the fourth player age 39 or older to score at least 30 goals in a season, joining Teemu Selänne, Johnny Bucyk and Gordie Howe (who did it three times). Ovechkin needs just two goals to break Howe’s record for goals in a season by a player 39 or older. But what Ovechkin has done this season is already much more impressive than Howe’s achievements at the same age. Howe eclipsed the 30-goal benchmark in three straight seasons, from 1967–68 to ’69–70. That marked a notable uptick in scoring for the Detroit Red Wings legend, who had gone four seasons without scoring 30 goals. The reason for his offensive renaissance is obvious. Beginning with the ’67–68 season, the NHL expanded from six teams to 12, and Howe did most of his damage against those expansion teams. Of his 114 goals over that three-year period, 61 came against expansion franchises. That’s 53.5%, even though he only played 42.3% of his games against those teams.
Ovechkin’s big year is a major reason why the Washington Capitals are having their best season in years. They currently have the best record in the Eastern Conference and are just one point behind the Winnipeg Jets for the best record in the league. Washington hasn’t won a playoff series since 2018, the year it won its only Stanley Cup. The way Ovechkin has been playing, it’s fair to start dreaming about the possibility of him lifting the Cup for a second time.
The best of Sports Illustrated
• Today’s Digital Cover is Emma Baccellieri’s report from Tampa on UConn’s long-awaited 12th national championship and Paige Bueckers’s long road to lead the Huskies there.
• Pat Forde, Bryan Fischer and Kevin Sweeney broke down the keys to Monday night’s men’s national championship game—and yes, of course, they made predictions for who will win.
• Forde also wrote about what’s at stake for Houston coach Kelvin Sampson in the Cougars’ showdown against Florida.
• Chris Mannix believes the Lakers have developed into a serious title contender.
• Ahead of this week’s Masters, Bob Harig spoke with Tiger Woods’s former caddie Steve Williams about the 20th anniversary of Tiger’s iconic chip—and the awkward high five that followed.
• After initially tabling negotiations until after the season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays have come to terms on a massive contract extension.
• Former Masters champion Angel Cabrera won this weekend’s PGA Tour Champions event, his first win since serving a two-year prison term for domestic violence.
The top five…
… things I saw yesterday:
5. Luke Kornet’s emphatic reaction after a nice hustle play.
4. A whopping four walk-off finishes in MLB. The Tigers, Pirates, Red Sox and Rangers all won in walk-off fashion.
3. Harrison Bader’s diving catch in left.
2. Victor Robles’s incredible effort on a difficult catch in the right field corner. He was injured in the process and had to be carted off.
1. Paige Bueckers and Geno Auriemma’s emotional embrace in the closing moments of UConn’s win over South Carolina.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI:AM | Ageless Alex Ovechkin Breaks Wayne Gretzky’s Goals Record.