If Memorial Day is the first serious checkpoint of the MLB season, then the Fourth of July qualifies as the second. The regular season is now past its midpoint as teams hanging around .500 must soon decide whether they’ll be buyers or sellers with the trade deadline less than a month away.
As our long-term views on the 2025 season continue to crystallize, let's recap what's gone on thus far and what could lie ahead.
1. Which team has been the pleasant surprise of the season?
Tom Verducci: The Tampa Bay Rays. The schedule is a bear. Only 16 home games in July and August. A minor league ballpark for a home. An ace (Shane McClanahan) still not back. But this is the hardest throwing staff in recorded history and Junior Caminero swings one of the two fastest bats in baseball. They have the best record in baseball against winning teams. They have one of the most athletic teams in the game, even if they tend to be careless on the bases. Believe it. The Rays are for real.
Stephanie Apstein: The timing of this question is funny. A few weeks ago, I probably would have said the New York Mets or the San Francisco Giants, but a couple of losing streaks later, they're in danger of becoming the answers to question 2 (see below). So I think I'll go with the Tampa Bay Rays. In one sense their success is unsurprising, because this is what they do most years, but keep in mind that most years they don't have to do it in an open-air minor league ballpark where game-time temperatures regularly hit the mid-90s.
Nick Selbe: The Toronto Blue Jays seemed to be nearing the end of a contention window with last season's 74-win campaign and a core group of players that seemed closer to the decline phase than their primes. Instead, Toronto doubled down, signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a 14-year extension worth half a billion dollars and adding Anthony Santander to a five-year deal worth nearly $100 million. The latter hasn't worked out so far, but it hasn't prevented the Blue Jays from keeping pace with the New York Yankees for first place in the American League East, Pythagorean record be damned. Toronto might not have the pitching depth at present to keep up this pace, but its offense looks dangerous enough to remain in the division hunt throughout the second half.
Ryan Phillips: The Chicago Cubs have arrived a year (or more) earlier than expected. While the pitching has been suspect, Chicago's offense has been relentless. Pete Crow-Armstrong has become a legitimate star and leads the National League in WAR, while Kyle Tucker is second. The Northsiders are a ton of fun and are baseball’s biggest surprise for their dominance (MLB’s best run differential) if not for their division standing.
Will Laws: Perhaps it shouldn't be surprising that the Rays have figured out how to stay competitive with a bottom-five payroll. Nevertheless, SI predicted them to finish 76–86 after they missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2018. Instead, they're just a game out of first place in the AL East with the AL's third-best run differential thanks to a strong, balanced offense and anold-school rotation that leads the junior circuit in innings pitched.
2. Which team has been the biggest disappointment?
TV: The Baltimore Orioles. I didn’t like their pitching depth coming into the season, and it got exposed right away. The continued decline of Adley Rutschman is a problem and some touted prospects have not stepped up while veterans like Tyler O’Neill and Ryan Mountcastle have done little. Hard to believe this team played itself out of the race in less than 50 games.
SA: The Mets and the Giants have had a bad three weeks, but for me, the true shock of the season has been the Orioles. They won 101 games two years ago and 91 last season, and all their young stars should be hitting their prime. But other than shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who's been worth 2.4 wins above replacement by Baseball-Reference's calculations, none of those guys is on track for even an All-Star caliber season, let alone the MVP-type campaign we were ready to expect from them. And the organization at times seems to be in turmoil; the front office fired manager Brandon Hyde in May, but GM Mike Elias did not address the decision for three days, and owner David Rubenstein still hasn't. When Hyde was whacked, the Orioles were 15–28; under his replacement, Tony Mansolino, they've gone 22–21. And it's getting late early in Baltimore: First baseman Ryan Mountcastle can be a free agent after next season, catcher Adley Rutschman can follow him the next year, and the rest are not far behind.
NS: The Orioles endured half a decade of tanking—a run that saw three seasons with 100-plus losses—to put the organization in a position to build a true-blue title contender. Bottoming out like that was supposed to yield more than two playoff runs that ended in first-round sweeps, and now Baltimore is back in a seller’s position as the trade deadline nears. With an interim manager at the helm, the club's leadership is in a state of transition. The urgency will be dialed up to 11 for the front office to somehow chart a path toward a more balanced roster for 2026—otherwise, further leadership changes will likely be quick to follow.
RP: This is a slam dunk. The Orioles entered the season with World Series hype, and the only question was whether they could find an ace before the deadline. Now, everyone expects them to sell as they're languishing in last place in the AL East.
WL: Yes, the Orioles have been awful, but their downfall was somewhat predictable given their glaring lack of arms. The Atlanta Braves, meanwhile, were widely seen as one of the Los Angeles Dodgers' biggest threats in the NL. Instead, they're likely to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Spencer Schwellenbach is the latest starting pitcher slated for a long stay on the IL. Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna all ranked in the bottom 10 of OPS among 183 qualified players in June. They'll need more than a blazing-hot Ronald Acuña Jr. to climb back in the playoff picture, and anything less than a postseason berth would qualify as a massive disappointment for a team that not long ago looked like it could dominate this decade.
3. Which team on top of its division is most vulnerable to losing its lead?
Note: This question was posed before the Blue Jays took over the AL East lead by sweeping the Yankees this week.
TV: The Yankees. I still believe it’s their division. But the Jays and Rays are not going away. The Boston Red Sox will play thsmselves back into the race in the second half. New York will prevail, but it will be pushed.
SA: Well, the Yankees lead the AL East by only one game over the Toronto Blue Jays, so mathematically, I guess that's the answer. But I believe in the Yankees, even without ace Gerrit Cole, in a way I don't buy the Blue Jays long-term. The Jays have played over their heads, which their +4 run differential reflects; the Yankees have Aaron Judge. It's hard to bet against him.
NS: It's a tale as old as time: The Philadelphia Phillies can't find the right bullpen combination. Not that the rest of the NL East has really looked impressive—the Miami Marlins' recent hot streak still leaves them 11 games behind first place, the Braves and Washington Nationals remain a mess, and the Mets are in a total tailspin. But New York has too much talent, and the Phillies have too many question marks, for this lead to feel safe. Expect these two financial behemoths to be neck-and-neck all the way through Game 162.
RP: The Phillies will almost certainly make the postseason, but the Mets aren't far behind them and have to be better than they've shown. Right? New York has been rough since mid-June, losing 14 of 17 at one point, but that won't last forever. The roster is too good to be down that long.
WL: This question had a little more juice to it when posed a few days ago; now, the answer is clearly the Yankees, who are clinging to a one-game lead in the AL East over the Blue Jays and Rays after losing three of four to Toronto. The Red Sox can't be counted out yet, either, despite their bizarre season thus far.
4. Which team not currently in playoff position is most likely to qualify?
TV: The Texas Rangers. The core hitting group of Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are starting to snap out of their early season funks. The Rangers are clicking just in time for Chris Young to find a bat to add to this offense. With Nathan Eovaldi back and Jacob deGrom looking his best in years, Texas has too much elite talent not to make a run.
SA: I will go with the San Diego Padres, who are currently tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL’s last wild-card berth. If the Mets don't fall further into the hole they're digging, the Cardinals, who employ exactly one regular with an OPS over .800 (DH Iván Herrera, .925), could be good for a late-season collapse.
NS: The middle is very muddled in both leagues, so here's a bet that the Rangers—who have baseball's best ERA at time of writing—can add a bat or two to separate themselves from the pack of less than impressive wild-card contenders.
RP: The Rangers are currently on the outside looking in, but have played much better baseball over the past few weeks. They're chasing down the Seattle Mariners and Rays for the final two wild-card spots, and both teams have serious flaws. A few smart deadline acquisitions could flip the script.
WL: I wasn't a believer in the Giants heading into this season, but the revival of Robbie Ray and the acquisition of Rafael Devers has convinced me that they may have what it takes to eke out a wild-card berth despite their gloomy June (in true San Francisco fashion).
5. What's your World Series pick?
TV: Los Angeles Dodgers over Detroit Tigers. Both teams have nasty stuff on the mound from spots 1–13 on the pitching staff—or in the Dodgers’ case, 1–14 with Shohei Ohtani getting stretched out for October. Dave Roberts and A.J. Hinch are masters at using postseason off days and high leverage bullpen arms to maximum advantage. They look like the best tournament teams.
SA: This is such a boring answer, but until I see some evidence to the contrary, I have to go with the Dodgers over the Yankees. Sorry, everyone.
NS: Dodgers over Tigers. Detroit looks like as complete a squad as there is, but if the Dodgers can reach some semblance of pitching health by the time October comes around, they'll be tough to pick against.
RP: The fact that the Dodgers have the best record in baseball despite getting a combined 52 1/3 innings from Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki so far makes them almost impossible to pick against. I've got them beating the Houston Astros in a rematch of the controversial 2017 World Series. It'll go seven games again.
WL: I'm far less steady in my conviction in the Dodgers than in spring training, when I thought they had a real chance to break the 2001 Mariners' win record. Their pitching depth has yet again been whittled down to the bone. So I'll take a swing on the Phillies making a big move or two before the deadline to take advantage of their closing title window, and the once-again contending Astros emerging from a weak AL bracket once Yordan Alvarez is back at full strength. In a rematch of the 2022 World Series, this time the Phillies win in six.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as MLB Midseason Roundtable: Surprises, Disappointments, World Series Picks.