Baseball is getting younger. The game is flush with a golden era of young shortstops. Last season, for the first time ever, four shortstops no older than 25 hit 25 homers (Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz and Ezequiel Tovar). The past two seasons are the only seasons ever in which under-25 players piled up at least 1,200 home runs and 1,200 stolen bases. A faster, more athletic game is good for all, right?
Not if you are an older player. As job opportunities go, this is the worst time for veteran hitters in the past half-century. The downside to the youth movement is found here:
- Plate appearances by players 36 and older last season were down 62% since 2010.
- Players 36-plus took their fewest plate appearances since 1977, when there were four fewer teams.
- The per-team average of aged-36-plus plate appearances (167) is the lowest since 1969.
- On the pitching front, starts for aged-36-plus pitchers dropped 36% last season.
Among those on the sidelines without a job this year are Matt Carpenter, Jose Abreu, J.D. Martinez, Adam Duvall, Yasmani Grandal, Whit Merrifield, Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Hicks, Yan Gomes, Joey Wendle, Mitch Haniger, David Peralta, David Robertson, Alex Wood and Lance Lynn.
Outfielder Tommy Pham, 37, provides an example of how teams look at older players. Pham did not sign with the Pittsburgh Pirates until Feb. 16—after the previous season of not finding a job until April 16 with the Chicago White Sox.
“I actually thought it would be harder for me this year,” says Pham. “Because, compared to last year, this year’s been way easier. It doesn’t make sense either because last year I had a way better previous season going into free agency than I did this year.”
In 2023, Pham posted a 111 OPS+ in 129 games, followed by a 91 OPS+ in 116 games in 2024. It wasn’t until he learned how much teams value “expected numbers” that Pham understood.
“The numbers say I underperformed, and my expected numbers are better than my actual numbers last year,” he says. “Teams brought that up to me last year. Or, I should say, a friend of mine who’s in the front office brought that up to me last year. So, it made me look it up.
“Free agents are completely different. They’re also looking at what they expect you to do. As you get older, age doesn’t favor you.”
Says pitcher Andrew Heaney, 33, who signed with Pittsburgh on Feb. 22: “It’s crazy out there. I had one team during free agency ask me if I would agree to go to the minor leagues if they wanted to send me there. Teams ask for that only when they plan on doing it.”
The decline of the veteran player has been happening over more than a decade. In 2010, players aged 36 and older took 7% of all plate appearances. By last season, their cut of the pie was down to 2.7%. Here is what the steep, steady decline looks like:
Plate Appearances by Players Aged 36-Plus
Why are teams turning away from veteran players? The quick answer is always money. Younger players are cheaper. But it’s not that simple. Other factors include:
The speed of the game. As velocity and spin increase, the younger, fast-twitch player is more favored. Last season, the 36-plus players hit .241, the worst by that group since 1967, before the DH. Their slash line standards of .241/.305/.393 were all slightly below major league averages.
Positional flexibility. Teams carry only four bench players. One is a backup catcher. The other three must cover a variety of positions. Younger players are more likely to be more athletic and versatile. The luxury of a veteran bat on the bench, going back to Lenny Harris, Matt Stairs and even Manny Mota, has virtually disappeared.
Roster flexibility. There is a reason why a team asked a veteran like Heaney to pre-approve a minor league assignment. Teams love players with options, especially pitchers, so they can constantly summon fresh arms and legs.
Player development. Teams are more willing to take a chance on a younger player. The amateur market, which includes enhanced competition, year-round instruction and professional advances in technology and training, are advancing the skill set of young players faster than ever. It doesn’t mean they are finished products sooner. It means they have the physical tools to get there sooner.
Roster spots. Because so many young players reach major league skill level so quickly, 40-man roster spots are golden. Many veterans would rather not play than go to spring training as a non-roster player with no guarantee of a job.
PED testing. Steroids prolonged careers. Eight of the nine biggest home run years for players 36-plus happened between 2001–08. Testing with penalties began in '04, when 36-plus players had more than triple the playing time they have now. Users accrued the benefits of unfettered past use even after those penalties began.
The game was very different then. Front offices trusted older players over prospects. Aging patterns are more predictable now, especially as metrics such as bat speed, swing length and exit velocity give front offices data where once they relied on the eye test.
“I keep myself in better shape than most guys in the league,” Pham says. “So, teams know that, but that’s not quantifiable, you know? You can't quantify that. But then you got a guy like D-Rob [Robertson, 39] right now, who’s still in free agency, and last year he was one of the best relievers I saw. Man, I had two at bats against him. They were tough. He was making pitches. He had stuff and he has the numbers to prove it. But then they’re probably looking at, ‘All right, guys don’t do this at his age.’ And I think that’s completely not fair to him. You know, he’s out there defying his age, right?”
The past two world champions, the 2023 Texas Rangers and '24 Los Angeles Dodgers, did not give a single plate appearance to a player 36-plus. Thirteen teams have won the World Series while giving at least 800 plate appearances to players 36-plus—but none of them since PED testing began.
As with most subtractions, there is a cost. The fewer veterans have jobs, the less teams benefit from veteran leadership. Pham has seen the value of veteran leadership with Pittsburgh. He and Andrew McCutchen, 38, are the only players older than 33 on the Pirates’ roster.
Asked if teams should still value veteran leadership in free agency, Pham says, “I feel like to answer that question, teams with a younger roster, yes. Because I’m speaking from experience on being on this team this year. Everybody asks me questions daily. I mean, like every young guy. I’m dead serious. I’ve never had this many young guys asked me about the game. And I mean, I love it.
“I’m embracing it, trying to really help them be knowledgeable about everything they ask me. But speaking from this experience this year on a young team, yes, absolutely. Okay? Now a veteran team, like when I was on the Mets, and we had a ton of veterans? I don't think it’s needed. But a young team, yes. Absolutely.”
The 1983 Baltimore Orioles won the World Series in a season in which players aged 36-plus contributed 331 hits. No world champion has had even half that many hits from the 36-plus demographic since the 2013 Boston Red Sox, almost all of them from David Ortiz. The game has become faster since then, leaving some of its elders behind.
“I don’t know, man,” Pham says. “It’s something that has to be corrected from both sides of the game, the league and the players. Because I’m seeing the value here in [Pittsburgh]. Guys want to know what it takes to make that next step, to prove that you belong in the big leagues. This is what a lot of these guys want to know. They can’t get that from guys with the same service.
“And it’s not really the coach’s responsibility to help them. In fact, it was always the veteran players to help guys. So, we'll see, man. I’m telling you from firsthand experience, there’s value in it.”
This article was originally published on www.si.com as You’re Not Getting Any Younger: Why Is MLB Relying Less on Veteran Players?.