Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where on the same weekend an NFL kicker can make a 68-yard field goal and a Michigan State kicker can miss from 23 yards in a game the Spartans lost by three in overtime. First Quarter: Slouching Tigers, Shrinking Canes. Second Quarter: The Rapidly Disappearing Hiring Class of 2023.
Third Quarter: The Must-Win Math Isn’t Mathing
Of all the wild statements that came out of the state of Louisiana last week before, during and after the firing of LSU football coach Brian Kelly and athletic director Scott Woodward, the most alarming wasn’t from strongman Gov. Jeff Landry (22).
It was from interim athletic director Verge Ausberry (23), who declared, “LSU has to be in the playoffs every year in football.”
Not some years. Not most years. Every year. If that’s simply grandiose talk that fans want to hear, fine. If that’s an aspiration, well, it’s good to have lofty goals. If that’s a condition of employment, then Gov. Loudmouth is hardly the biggest disincentive for talented coaches to consider the Tigers job.
Nobody is going to the playoff every year.
Here are the math facts in the current 12-team playoff system: LSU is one of 16 SEC programs trying to win an automatic bid. Should the Tigers not earn that entry, they become one of 64 teams fighting to land seven at-large bids. (In theory, all eligible FBS teams are competing for at-large CFP spots. But in reality, those bids are going to go to power-conference teams and Notre Dame.)
So in a vacuum, every SEC team has a 6.3% chance of winning an automatic bid and, failing that, a 10.9% chance of an at-large bid. It’s tough to reconcile those percentages with a belief that CFP inclusion should be an annual reality.
(This is also why an expansion to 16 playoff teams by 2027 at the latest seems likely. Not just more money, but more programs that can say they delivered on high expectations. Instead of getting better, make it easier. Same mindset for the inevitable expansion of the NCAA basketball tournaments.)
Even at places like LSU—which has many inherent advantages—and even in a 12-to-16-team era, going to the playoff every year is not a reasonable demand.
Alabama (24), with the greatest coach in history, has been to eight out of 11 playoffs and missed the first 12-teamer. The Crimson Tide, Clemson (25) and Ohio State (26) are the only other programs that have been to more than half of those 11, with the Tigers making seven and the Buckeyes six. Twenty-one different programs have filled the 52 spots in the playoff era.
The modern realities further tilt the field toward parity and away from hegemony. This is a flatter sport now, with more mobility up and down the hierarchy. Clemson, with the same head coach who took the Tigers to all seven of those playoff appearances, is currently tied for 12th in the ACC. Meanwhile, look who is in first in each of the power conferences.
Virginia (27) leads the ACC. The Cavaliers haven’t had a winning season since 2019, have never sniffed the playoff and haven’t been in the national championship conversation in November since a flicker of excitement in 1990. (It passed quickly.)
BYU (28) leads the Big 12. The Cougars have been a successful program for most of the last 60 years, and they probably deserved more playoff consideration than they got last season. But they still are 0-for-the-CFP, and their only national title came in 1984 (with no small amount of backlash).
Indiana (29) leads the Big Ten by a half-game over Ohio State, continuing its rise from the dead. Prior to last season, there was no need to even scour the record books for anything resembling national title contention. The 1967 team was 8–0 and ranked No. 5 in the AP poll, then was smashed by Minnesota before sidestepping into the Rose Bowl via antiquated tiebreaker rules, whereupon the Hoosiers lost to USC. That’s it.
(While each season is distinct unto itself, Indiana’s current steamroll to 9–0 makes the petty complaining from SEC country last year look even worse. It was wrong then, and with the help of hindsight, more wrong now.)
Texas A&M (30) leads the SEC. Like the others above, the Aggies have never made the playoff. While this is a logical place for a program of A&M’s resources to be, it hasn’t won a national title since the 1930s.
When the first playoff rankings are unveiled Tuesday night, don’t be surprised to see half the bracket populated by teams that have never made the CFP. In addition to the Cavaliers, Cougars and Aggies, Mississippi is a lock to be in the top 12 and Texas Tech should be as well. The Group of 6 bid seems to be in the American’s control, which would put another fresh team in the playoff.
This kind of turnover at (or near) the top looks like the new normal. Which means winning forever is less of a given.
College football remains a zero-sum game. In the 18-team Big Ten, there will be 162 wins and 162 losses in league play this season; in the Big 12 the overall record will be 144–144; in the ACC it’s 136–136 (until they get funky with a nine-game schedule and 17 teams next year); and in the SEC it’s 128–128. There will be winners, but there also will be losers.
When an Indiana or a Vanderbilt rises up, a Wisconsin or an Auburn gets shoved down. When the entire state of Florida goes missing from the playoff from 2015 to ’24 (and perhaps ’25), the Lone Star State is standing by to claim bids by Texas (twice), TCU, SMU and now maybe Texas Tech.
Everyone can declare that “football must succeed” and dump tens of millions of dollars into the pursuit of that—often irresponsibly—but not everyone gets the desired return on investment. The occasional disappointments increase the pressure from fans, who are increasingly asked to fund the empire building. It’s undoubtedly a factor in the accelerated coaching churn discussed in the Dash Second Quarter.
Brian Kelly won 71% of his games at LSU and it wasn’t good enough—he couldn’t get the Tigers in the playoffs. But before his arrival, LSU made it only one time, in 2019. That juggernaut team won the national title in a blip of brilliance that was preceded by a 10–3 season and followed by a 5–5 one. It wasn’t on autopilot in Baton Rouge.
Make the playoff every year? It sounds good, but it’s not realistic. Anywhere.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: The Myth of Making the College Football Playoff Every Season.