The NBA has refused to take a breath since April. The end of the regular season was the last reprieve. Since the playoffs kicked off shortly thereafter, the league has been slammed with wave after wave of news, developments and trades that have completely changed the landscape for next season and beyond—without even going into the actual postseason games played and the Oklahoma City Thunder’s championship that concluded it all.
But now, with the Fourth of July in the rearview mirror, things are finally starting to slow down. The sprint from Game 7 of the NBA Finals carried through the 2025 NBA draft and into the free agency moratorium. But while there are still dominoes left to fall, the major pieces have settled on the board. The biggest trades have been executed and the most important free agents have agreed to contracts.
In other words, a lot has happened since free agency unofficially began on June 30. With the moratorium set to expire on Sunday at noon and all the signings and trades that have been reported in the last six days becoming official, it’s as good a time as any to take stock and evaluate all that action around the league.
Here are the biggest winners and losers from NBA free agency this offseason.
Winners
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets broke up their championship core in free agency this year and got better in the process, which is a mighty tricky needle to thread. But they managed it on paper.
Denver’s biggest move was swapping Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 first-round pick for Cameron Johnson. Porter’s ability to make shots was key in their 2023 title run. But his inconsistency has plagued the team during his minutes in the years since, and his $179 million contract was looking worse by the day. He and Johnson are very similar shooters statistically, and in theory Porter’s length gives him a level of shot creation Johnson cannot reach.
In practice, Johnson should prove a much better fit for what the Nuggets need. With Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray running the show, Denver just needs players who can hit shots. Porter proved quite capable of that for large stretches, but his cold spells proved rather damaging this past season. He had nine regular season games in which he made zero three-point shots (the Nuggets lost five of those games) and added another four such games in the playoffs (with three ending in losses). Conversely, Johnson recorded only one game without a three-point make. He played in 20 fewer contests, in fairness, but he was more consistent than Porter, and that matters a ton when the cold streaks come at the wrong time. Giving up a first-round pick that far into the future stings, but trading for a more reliable option (on a much cheaper deal) should prove to be a net win when the important games come along.
But what made the Nuggets’ offseason great thus far is the other moves they made in tandem with the trade. They brought back Bruce Brown on a veteran minimum deal to play the role Russell Westbrook played off the bench, only much better. They also added Tim Hardaway Jr. and got out of Dario Šarić's ridiculous player option by trading him to the Sacramento Kings in exchange for Jonas Valančiūnas, who would be the best backup the Nuggets have ever had for Jokić if he sticks around instead of playing in Greece.
The Nuggets fixed their bench and replaced the most inconsistent member of their starting five in a swift series of moves. The games must be played, but it’s hard not to feel good if you’re Denver.
Damian Lillard
The outlook isn’t exactly sunshine and rainbows for Lillard, who turns 35 this month, as the All-Star is looking at a full year in recovery from his torn Achilles tendon. But the Bucks’ out-of-nowhere decision to waive him and use the stretch provision on his contract means he’s actually in a pretty sweet spot, relatively speaking.
Lillard was slated to make $113 million over the next two seasons and be stuck as part of an aging Bucks roster. Now, he’ll still have to rehab for a year, but he’s going to make all that money with the benefit of choosing where he rehabs and, when he’s healthy, where he wants to sign. Early reports suggest his priority is to win his first NBA championship, which was already a longshot with the Bucks, and the odds were not likely to change in his favor.
Until now, Lillard’s end-of-career arc seemed set in stone. He’d make a ludicrous amount of money to play out his contract (and final years of effective play) in Milwaukee without a real shot at contention and either retire or become an end-of-bench ring-chaser. Now the outlook is very different. Lillard will get to choose how it all ends, a rare treat for a professional athlete. What a gift the Bucks have given him.
Houston Rockets
The Kevin Durant trade, executed in the hours leading up to Game 7 of the NBA Finals, was the obvious big win of the offseason for the Rockets and arguably the biggest single acquisition for any team. He is a perfect fit for Houston in nearly every way and elevates the Rockets to true contender status. But it’s the other moves that get them on this list.
Signing Dorian Finney-Smith away from the Los Angeles Lakers was an unexpected move, and a very valuable one. He replaces Dillon Brooks as the veteran wing defender quite cleanly and has a reputation as a great locker room presence, whereas Brooks has had some issues with that in the past. He’ll be great in head coach Ime Udoka’s defensive scheme and fills a key role every contender needs nowadays: a true three-and-D wing. On top of all that, his $44 million contract is perfectly reasonable for what he brings to the table, and will prove easily tradeable if the team needs flexibility.
Inking Clint Capela to a three-year deal worth $21 million was not as seamless a fit, but it’s a good use of the Rockets’ money. He is, if anything, tremendous insurance if Steven Adams’s injury issues pop up again. Capela can also add a different element to the offense as a vertical lob threat and gives Udoka a variety of double-big lineups to play with. Coming to terms with Fred VanVleet on a significantly cheaper deal was another great bit of maneuvering that keeps a veteran leader, as well as the team’s only true point guard, around. Dumping Cam Whitmore for basically nothing was the one flaw of the free agency period, but it’s hard to knock them too much for that when the former first-round pick hasn’t given them a reason to keep him around.
The roster construction isn’t perfect. There is a ton of pressure on Durant, who turns 37 in September, to save the offense every night, and if the 37-year-old gets hurt they are in big trouble. But Houston now has multiple ways to beat its opponent every night and undeniably upgraded a roster that earned the No. 2 seed in the fierce West last year without compromising its core of Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun. That’s good work.
Losers
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks seemed locked in a cage of their own making ever since Lillard went down with his Achilles injury. Giannis Antetokounmpo rumors were growing from a murmur to a roar, the cap sheet looked dire and many of the average role players dotting the roster were set to be free agents. Then they pulled out the rarely-used stretch provision to ditch Lillard. Was it worth it?
The answer is … complicated. On the one hand it was starting to look pretty obvious that Antetokounmpo would look elsewhere if nothing about the roster changed. And even if that wasn’t true, the Bucks were a long way away from contending with the likes of the Thunder despite employing one of the league’s very best players. They had to change something to ensure their Greek superstar remained happy and take advantage of the 30-year-old’s remaining seasons as a two-way monster the best they could. With no cap space to sign free agents outright thanks to Antetokounmpo and Lillard’s max contracts, the Bucks’ only path seemed to be to dangle all the assets they have left to pull off a trade or two for a higher-end rotation player and hope everything else worked out.
Instead, they got off Lillard’s deal (kind of) and signed Myles Turner to replace the departing Brook Lopez. That’s an upgrade, even if Turner’s $107 million deal may be a bit rich relative to his on-court impact. Otherwise, though, Milwaukee brought back a few players from last year’s team and signed journeyman wing Gary Harris. You can see the vision of replacing the older Lopez with a younger, better version and Antetokounmpo’s greatness being enough to get to the postseason with homecourt advantage in a weak East, at which point anything can happen.
However, the cost of doing so is punishing and will be felt for years. Thanks to the stretch provision the Bucks will have a charge of over $20 million annually for the next five seasons for Lillard to not be on the team. That is hindering in any capacity but especially so in an NBA where the CBA dictates every dollar is accounted for, especially for championship hopefuls like the Bucks. If this roster doesn’t work out Milwaukee has little recourse. If the worst comes to be and an Antetokounmpo trade is on the horizon, it’ll take a few seasons for the team to recover even if they get a king’s ransom in exchange.
It feels unfair to criticize the Bucks for doing this because they were stuck between a rock and a hard place. But choosing this path means catastrophe is only one or two bad breaks away. The Bucks may have carved out a bit of breathing room on the Antetokounmpo trade front, but they still dance on the verge of disaster.
Jonathan Kuminga
This section could probably be written about every restricted free agent this offseason. With virtually zero teams entering free agency with cap space to burn, there hasn’t been the usual song and dance of some random organization throwing a big contract at a restricted free agent that is then matched by the player’s original team. But it must especially hurt for Kuminga, who hasn’t made any progress towards securing a new deal or finding a home more suitable for his stated desire of being the top option on the floor.
Players like Kuminga typically have numerous suitors upon entering free agency. His athletic profile is enticing as an upper-echelon slasher with the wingspan and other physical traits to lock up opposing scorers. His red flags—failing to fit in with the Golden State Warriors and openly stating his wishes for a larger offensive role—aren’t the type that usually prevent teams from being interested most years. Kuminga is a rare enough athlete that just about every organization could talk themselves into the idea that he’d shine in their system at the right price point.
That was not the case this year. Only the Brooklyn Nets had significant cap space entering free agency and they didn’t end up using much of it, likely due to their five incoming rookies from the 2025 draft. This left very few options for Kuminga, and obviously no team wound up interested enough to clear space to sign him. The Warriors likely aren’t helping matters in that regard—they don’t seem interested in retaining Kuminga but also won’t want to lose him for nothing. That leaves the 2021 first-rounder in a weird limbo state without a clear path forward.
There’s still plenty of time for Kuminga to end up where he wants— a team that allows him the freedom to prove he’s a No. 1 scorer and will pay him well for the privilege. But all the moves made during the moratorium limit his options significantly in that regard, and the circumstances he desires are already so particular that there weren’t many logical destinations to begin with. Kuminga’s offseason is shaping up to be a frustrating one.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers entered the offseason with numerous roster flaws and few methods to address them. They have Luka Dončić and LeBron James, so obviously the superstar-acquisition part of the team-building process is all set. But L.A. got dominated in the first round of the postseason by the Minnesota Timberwolves because the roster around those two stars couldn’t rebound or defend to anywhere near a high enough level. The Lakers’ center rotation was so bad JJ Redick bailed on playing any of them and instead went small-ball against Rudy Gobert, which worked out as well as could be expected. Combined with James and Dončić's own questionable defensive tendencies, the Lakers needed a makeover.
There was just no way to pull that off in one offseason. They used the mid-level taxpayers exception to sign wing Jake LaRavia and center Deandre Ayton, but there was no big trade to find a third wheel to the LeBron/Luka duo and no smaller trades to fill out the rotation with players who fit around those two stars. LaRavia and Ayton both fit that mold to a degree but come with their own question marks. Making matters worse was James picking up his $52.6 million player option and in the process publicly pressuring the Lakers to make moves to win a championship right this second.
This put L.A. into a “damned if they do, damned if they don’t” situation. On the one hand they could kowtow to the desires of James, an all-time great on his last legs, and burn all their assets to get whoever is available. This would keep James happy and show Doncic the franchise is willing to go to great lengths to compete. On the other hand, doing so would only continue to hamper the Lakers’ already-limited flexibility going forward. And unlike prior seasons, they have to be thinking about the future because they were gifted a 26-year-old perennial MVP candidate by the Dallas Mavericks. Flailing about in an attempt to put as good a team as possible on the floor right now could lead to a disastrous future.
The LaRavia and Ayton signings were decent enough, but the Lakers were always going to be losers this offseason. If they turtled to preserve future assets then they’d be seen as failing to capitalize on the two generational talents they currently employ, and would definitely make James very unhappy in the process. If they went all-out to acquire the best talent possible (whoever that might’ve been) there was no guarantee it would lead to winning next season and comes with possibly catastrophic consequences. They did what they could, but there was no winning for Los Angeles this offseason.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NBA Free Agency Winners and Losers: Nuggets Retool While Lakers Scuffle.